There are forecasts that LCD TV panel prices, which have been stagnant for three months, will rise slightly from March to the second quarter. However, LCD makers are expected to post operating losses in the first half of this year as LCD production capacity still far exceeds demand.
On February 9, DSCC predicted that LCD TV panel prices will gradually increase from March. After the price of LCD TV panels bottomed out in September last year, the panel prices of some sizes rose slightly, but from December last year to this month, panel prices have been stagnant for three consecutive months.
The LCD TV panel price index is expected to reach 35 in March. This is above last September's low of 30.5. In June, the year-on-year increase in the price index is expected to enter positive territory. This is the first time since September 2021.
DSCC predicts that the worst may be over when it comes to panel prices, but the display industry will still outstrip demand for the foreseeable future. With the destocking of the display supply chain, panel prices are gradually rising, and the losses of panel manufacturers will also be reduced. However, the operating losses of LCD manufacturers are expected to continue until the first half of this year.
The first quarter showed that supply chain inventories were still at a high level. DSCC predicts that if the operating rate of panel makers remains low in the first quarter and inventory adjustments continue, LCD TV panel prices will continue to rise gradually from March to the second quarter.
LCD TV Panel Price Index from January 2015 to June 2023
The average price of LCD TV panels is expected to rise by 1.7% in the first quarter. Prices in March were 1.9% higher than in December last year. Prices in December were also 6.1 per cent higher than in September.
Previously, in October last year, small-size LCD TV panels began to increase in price. However, the average price of LCD TV panels rose only 0.5% in the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the previous quarter, the price of LCD TV panels dropped by 13.1% in the second quarter of last year and 16.5% in the third quarter of last year. In the third quarter of last year, panel makers with a large proportion of LCD suffered losses due to falling panel prices and slowing demand.
In terms of area, the 65-inch and 75-inch panels produced by the 10.5-generation factory have a larger premium than the small-size panels, but the premium of the 65-inch panel disappeared in the second quarter of last year. Price premiums for 75-inch panels plummeted last year. As the price increase of small-size panels is expected to be higher than that of 75-inch panels, the premium of 75-inch panels is expected to further decline in the first and second quarters of this year.
Last June, the price of a 75-inch panel was $144 per square meter. That's $41 more than the price of the 32-inch panel, a 40 percent premium. When LCD TV panel prices bottomed out in September of the same year, the 75-inch was at a 40% premium to the 32-inch, but the price fell to $37.
By January 2023, the price of 32-inch panels has increased, but the price of 75-inch panels has not changed for five months, and the premium per square meter has dropped to US$23, an increase of 21%. Prices for 75-inch panels are expected to rise from April, but prices for 32-inch panels are expected to rise even more. The price premium for 75-inch panels is expected to remain at 21%, but the amount will drop to $22.
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